On Tuesday (June 16th) in early Asian trading, spot gold rebounded after a sharp decline, currently trading around $4320. Meanwhile, the latest survey by the World Gold Council shows that among the 74 central banks surveyed, 45% plan to increase their gold reserves in the coming year, the highest percentage since 2018, with only one indicating a possible reduction. The simultaneous occurrence of price pullbacks and official purchase intentions has shifted the gold market from a purely safe-haven transaction to a repricing between "high interest rate pressure and reserve reallocation support."

Gold's decline from its year-to-date highs is primarily driven by two factors. First, disturbances in energy prices and inflation expectations have led the market to bet again on prolonged high interest rates, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets. Second, excessive crowding of long positions in the previous period meant that once prices broke below key moving averages and the middle band of the trading range, algorithmic and trend-following funds were prone to concentrated selling, resulting in a technical amplification.

From a daily chart perspective, spot gold is still trading below the Bollinger Band's middle band. The middle band is around $4451.04, the upper band around $4761.24, and the lower band around $4140.84; the current price is significantly below the middle band. In the MACD indicator, the DIFF is around -97.36, the DEA is around -90.42, and the histogram is still negative, indicating that the daily trend correction is not yet complete. After rebounding from the low of $4023.85, the price has recovered some of the oversold condition, but has not yet regained the trend watershed around $4450.

From a 4-hour chart perspective, after yesterday's gap-up opening, the price is currently consolidating at a relatively high level. Although it hasn't opened up further upside potential, it has managed to hold above the $4300 support level. The market will now await the Fed's interest rate decision. At this stage, the moving average group is not very helpful; we need to wait for the MA20 to catch up. However, the MACD indicator has successfully broken through the zero axis, which is a good bullish signal. Therefore, the trading strategy should be adjusted to buy on dips. Resistance: 4330-4340-4350 Support: 4315-4300-4290

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Binkex market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.