During the Asian trading session on Friday (July 17), US crude oil traded near $78.98 per barrel, having fallen back below the $80 mark. Despite ongoing tensions between the US and Iran, the White House stated that Iran remains in dialogue with the US; furthermore, Iran's release of a US citizen suggests there is still room to avoid all-out war.

On the news front, International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol issued an urgent warning: if the Strait of Hormuz does not fully reopen unconditionally within weeks, the global economy will face a severe shock. Traffic through the strait has plummeted to single-digit daily vessel counts—a drop of over 90% from pre-conflict levels—while daily oil exports from the Gulf region have plunged by 8 million barrels, and Asian crude imports have fallen 30% year-on-year. Birol emphasized that the window of opportunity is measured in weeks, marking a shift from warning to reality; this geopolitical crisis will continue to impact the global energy supply chain.

On the daily chart, the moving average system is fanning out downwards, indicating a shift to a bearish medium-term trend. Regarding market rhythm, the price has broken below the support level that held for over three months; with bearish momentum strengthening, the medium-term outlook is predominantly downward.

In the short term (1-hour chart), crude oil has been oscillating at high levels for four trading sessions. While the short-term trend has shifted to a range-bound pattern, the underlying primary trend remains upward. Bullish and bearish forces are deadlocked, though the fundamental market structure remains unchanged. Based on the principles of market rhythm, there is a high probability that the price will maintain an upward trajectory today. Strategy: Go long at $78.00; stop-loss at $75.20; target at $81.00.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Binkex market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.